| Probably the biggest monkey wrench for college | | | | around until a shooter in good position gets an open |
| basketball handicappers is the seeming randomness | | | | look. |
| of three-point shooting performances. Whenever you | | | | *It's easier to make threes in cozy arenas than it is in |
| lose a game you love, it seems like your team will | | | | NBA-style arenas, or in domes converted for |
| always have something like 2-12 or 3-18 on their | | | | basketball during March Madness. Remember this |
| three-point stat line. If not that, the opponent was | | | | come tournament time. |
| 8-12 or 10-15. If three-point shooting had been | | | | *It's easier to make threes against defenses who are |
| normal, you would have won easily. Instead, | | | | tall and slow. They just can't cover the entire |
| something way out of line happened and you took a | | | | perimeter very efficiently. |
| loss instead of a win. | | | | *It's easier to make threes with fresh legs than with |
| It's easy to forget that ALL sports have random | | | | tired legs (important to remember during conference |
| influences like this. Turnovers in football can wreak | | | | tournaments). |
| havoc with outcomes. The way an umpire calls a | | | | With those fundamentals in mind, handicappers should |
| strike zone can seemingly determine the winner of | | | | then take these two critical steps: *Find the teams |
| any baseball game. The reason sharp handicappers | | | | who make great use of three-pointers out of their |
| dont hit 75% or 80% of all of their releases is | | | | regular offenses, and look for spots where this will |
| because the randomness of sports makes that | | | | be particularly helpful. Read through the boxscores |
| impossible. You do your best to find edges, just as | | | | and look for consistency and a clean percentage. |
| you would when playing Texas Hold-em. The cards | | | | *Find teams who tend to launch a bunch of treys in |
| that hit the flop, turn, and river are out of your | | | | panic mode when they fall behind, and look for spots |
| control. | | | | where this will be a big problem. These will be clear in |
| Three-point shooting is out of your control! | | | | the boxscores with teams who have a lot of those |
| Though, I have to admit, it's becoming more | | | | 3-18 or 6-24 type games. |
| predictable than it used to be in college basketball. | | | | Suddenly, three-point performance won't seem so |
| We're at a point now where most teams have | | | | random any more. You'll be taking teams who shoot |
| somebody who's almost automatic if they get an | | | | the trey intelligently when they're facing poor |
| open look out of a set offense. Kids have been | | | | defenses in good scoring conditions. You'll be going |
| shooting this shot since they started playing the | | | | against poorly coached erratic teams who are |
| game. By the time they reach the college level, | | | | launching guarded shots while trailing on a court with |
| specialists really are marksmen at the relatively short | | | | a bad shooting background. |
| distance (which, thankfully, is being lengthened next | | | | Instead of feeling like you're at the mercy of a |
| season because the shot really has become too | | | | random stat, you'll feel largely in command of what is |
| cheap). Handicappers should be looking at the shot | | | | arguably the single most important factor in that |
| from the following perspective: | | | | game. You'll be backing Butler, Drake, or Air Force at |
| 3-POINT FUNDAMENTALS: *It's easier to make | | | | home against a slow-footed defense in a game |
| threes at home than on the road because the | | | | they're going to win handily. You'll be going against |
| shooting backdrop is familiar. This isn't as big an issue | | | | Troy or Fresno State in a road game where the |
| as it used to be, but it's still a valid point. | | | | bombs just aren't going to fall. |
| *It's easier to make uncontested threes than | | | | I hope you'll pay serious attention to this stat in |
| contested three's. That's obvious of course. Too | | | | these last few weeks of the regular season, and all |
| many poorly coached teams don't realize this! | | | | through the conference tournaments and Big Dance. |
| *It's easier to make threes when a player is planted | | | | You'll feel much more in command of the sport, and |
| and set than it is when he comes to a full stop on | | | | you'll be finding easy winners in spots you weren't |
| the fast break. You'll see many "automatic" bid teams | | | | even looking at before! |
| from lesser conferences in the Big Dance try to hit | | | | Get our most updated NBA information from the |
| treys out of transition. They tend to clank balls off | | | | links provided: Basketball Picks and College Basketball |
| the rim all day. Other programs have copied the | | | | Picks. |
| "Princeton" offense that patiently moves the ball | | | | |